The average aircraft utilisation for the world’s commercial fleet is expected to drop by four per cent this year over 2008, according to the latest Commercial Aircraft Fleets and Utilisation Forecast from OAG. This compares with a typical annual growth in utilisation of around 3-3.5 per cent.

The forecast is based on the global MRO (maintenance, repair and overhaul) service demand projection for the next decade, developed in partnership with AeroStrategy. The forecast includes the significant global contraction in schedules frequency and capacity over the last six months, OAG said.

Managing director, OAG Aviation, John Weber, added that only a modest recovery is expected in 2010 with normal levels of aircraft utilisation growth are not expected to return until 2011.

The regions worst affected this year by a reduction in aircraft utilisation will be North America (-7 per cent) and Western Europe (-5 per cent). Least affected will be China, Eastern Europe, Africa, India and Latin America. By 2018, Asia is projected to increase its share of the world’s global aircraft utilisation by 2.8 per cent to 25.4 per cent, driving up demand for MRO services in the region.