Airbus is forecasting demand for some 25,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at US$3.1 trillion between 2009 and 2028, according to the European airframer’s latest global market forecast. Emerging economies, evolving airline networks, expansion of low cost carriers and the increasing number of megacities as well as traffic growth and the replacement of older less efficient aircraft with more eco-efficient airliners are the driving factors it said.

Airfreight tonne kilometres (FTKs) are forecast to increase annually by 5.2 per cent, which when combined with fleet renewal, creates a demand for some 3,440 freighters, according to Airbus. More than 850 of these are new aircraft valued at US$210 billion, with the remainder converted from passenger aircraft.

Larger aircraft in all size categories are required to help ease passenger aircraft congestion and to accommodate growth on existing routes, according to Airbus. The forecast anticipates that in the next 20 years, passenger traffic RPK’s will remain resilient to the cyclical effects of the sector and increase by 4.7 per cent per year or double in the next 15 years. This will require a demand for almost 24,100 new passenger aircraft valued at US$2.9 trillion. With the replacement of some 10,000 older passenger aircraft, the world’s passenger aircraft fleet of 100 seats or more will double from some 14,000 today.

The greatest demand for passenger aircraft will be from airlines in Asia- Pacific and emerging markets. The region that includes the People’s Republic of China and India accounts for 31 per cent of the total, followed by Europe (25 per cent) and North America (23 per cent). In terms of domestic passenger markets, India (10 per cent) and China (7.9 per cent) will have the fastest growth over the next 20 years. The largest by volume of traffic, will remain domestic US.