By the time this issue of Payload Asia hits readers’ desks, the fate of air cargo supply chains in the new US 100 per cent screening environment will be clearer. Although no one really expects the US air cargo industry to grind to a halt, there is a realistic expectation of some initial confusion, congestion and inevitably delays, but to what extent is the million dollar question.

The process has clearly been flawed – for months and years leading up to this crucial turning point the industry was still debating whether screening meant scanning! But just as surely as the famous line, “Yes Virginia, there is Santa Claus,” there is also 100 per cent screening and it does mean 100 per cent scanning. Pretty much all the industry can hope for is some desperately needed fine-tuning. Key hurdles that must be cleared are the need to break down pallets into individual pieces for scanning, as well as testing and approving scanning technologies, including sniffer dogs and other techniques that can be used to screen the cargo. Migrating the system to a risk analysis-based system would also be a major step forward, although at the moment that looks like only a pipe-dream.

The other main problem is the issue of cargo inbound from other countries, which in 2008, amounted to 3.3 million tonnes of air freight carried aboard US domestic passenger flights, of which approximately 42 per cent originated outside of the country. The problem in reaching 100 per cent for this cargo was highlighted in a damning report on the Transportation Security Administration’s (TSA) preparation for the 1 August deadline by the Government Accountability Office (GAO).

While the GAO noted the TSA had made significant progress, including creation of the Certified Cargo Screening Program (CCSP), and growth in the volume of air cargo that is screened, it said the 1 August deadline would likely not be met for domestic cargo and most certainly wouldn’t for international. The CCSP was clearly a smart, if not unavoidable, move as airlines are ultimately responsible for screening cargo, but lack of space at airports to store large volumes of unscreened cargo and actual scanning, including break-down and build-up of palates would create disastrous bottlenecks. To avoid this the CCSP allows freight forwarders and others in the supply chain to obtain certification and screen cargo before it arrives at the airport. The numbers of freight forwarders and others will likely grow substantially in the coming weeks, out of pure necessity.

Although the report was hardly surprising on the issue of international cargo as the TSA’s acting director at the time, Gale Rossides had earlier testified before a Homeland Security Subcommittee that 65 per cent was probably the best the TSA could do by that date for international cargo. That figure is now being estimated at around 55 per cent by the government watchdog which added that the 100 per cent mark will require more years of international negotiations. The GAO was especially critical of the TSA for not having in place a contingency plan should it not meet the mandated deadline.

John Sammon, who heads TSA’s air cargo division, said he resisted GAO’s recommendation for a contingency plan on the basis that having a fallback will signal to the industry that TSA is not serious about the August deadline. It will however, become abundantly clear in the coming days and weeks not just how serious TSA is,but how serious the disruptions are. And we wait with bated breath.