This new technology has suddenly exploded into mainstream consciousness thanks to a gun proponent in the US. It was quite simply a ‘shot that was heard around the world’ – but this time it was not the start of a world war, nor of colonial rebellion, but perhaps the starting gun for a different kind of revolution. With the successful creation and firing of the world’s first 3D printed plastic gun, the average global citizen suddenly became aware of this seemingly futuristic manufacturing process.
In a recent white paper, Transport Intelligence (Ti) highlights that 3D Printing or ‘additive manufacturing’ as it is also known, “has the potential to become the biggest single disruptive phenomenon to impact global industry since assembly lines were introduced in the early twentieth century America.”
For the global transport logistics sector this new technology represents potentially both a threat and an opportunity as this new technology could dramatically revolutionise production techniques, reducing the need for large and costly work forces and thereby reversing, to some degree, the trend of globalisation, according to Ti.
And while the plastic gun is hopefully not the technology’s most lasting memory and one surely eclipsed already by the wide range of medical and scientific objects already being constructed, it is a technology still clearly in its infancy.
Speaking at the recent Ti Emerging Markets and The Future of Logistics Conference 2013 in Singapore, Ken Lyon, CEO of UK-based consultancy Virtual- Partners and co-author of the Ti white paper estimated that the current state of the technology is “roughly analogous to where PCs were in the mid-1990s, but we see the rate of acceleration both in terms of price reduction and capabilities.”
Nascent as it is, the technology has already chalked up an impressive resume – creating everything from novelty items, iPhone cases, jewellery, foot wear (Nike’s Vapor Laser Talon boot for American football), medical devices, prosthesis, artificial hip joints, dental crowns, car parts, jet engine parts, rocket nozzles and even human skin, blood vessels and a fully functioning human kidney.
What is 3D printing?
So what exactly is this revolutionary new technology which made its debut with the first 3D printer created in 1984? Although a bit of misnomer, 3D printing is the manufacture of three dimensional objects of virtually any shape from a digital model produced by CAD software, by an ‘additive process’ similar to that of ink jet printers in which ink is deposited on paper layer-by-layer.
In the case of 3D printing, the object is created by laying down successive layers of material by what looks like an over-grown ink-jet printer, according to the digital model. It differs from traditional manufacturing processes which rely mostly on the removal of material by methods such as cutting, drilling, etching, lathing, etc., which is known as ‘subtractive processes’.
In the 3D printing process products can be lighter, but just as strong, with less wastage and to very fine tolerances. While current 3D printing is limited in what raw materials it can currently print – including plastic resin, metal such as aluminium and titanium, carbon fibre, glass and ceramics – the range of materials is expanding quickly.
The fact NASA used the technology to produce a rocket injector which was successfully test fired in August is proof of its robustness. In comparison, manufacturing the same injector the traditional way was a complex process taking six months, involved multiple parts and at a much higher cost. Using 3D printing techniques it was single part, took three weeks, at half the cost and it can be reused.
Similarly GE is increasingly using 3D printing and is now testing jet engine injectors using this technology with company now operating a full-scale additive manufacturing facility in the US focused on the development and scale up of new alloys, processes and parts for additive use.
Indeed, in just four years’ time, GE’s newest aircraft engine, the CFM LEAP, will fly with parts made from additive, or 3-D printing processes with the jet engine manufacturer predicting that within four decades an entire engine could be printed in this manner.
“We may not fully realise it yet, but we are at the dawn of the next Industrial Revolution with additive manufacturing. It has the potential to fundamentally disrupt how complex products like jet engines are designed and made in the future,” Michael Idelchik, VP, Advanced Technologies at GE Global Research wrote recently in a science and technology blog.
Although the technology has been around for nearly three decades it has made its first mark in prototyping with Martin Wegner, VP research & development for DHL Customer Solutions and Innovation, noting it has “revolutionised rapid prototyping.”
“Starting a new business is now very easy and cheap to produce the first design and functional prototypes and the first series production up to certain batch sizes to test the market acceptance of a new product. Start-ups benefit as there is no investment in costly tooling is necessary,” he says.
Impact on manufacturing
Because the nature of 3D printing in its current form is more individual in nature it is so far limited to more niche areas but one area where experts see the technology having far reaching implications is in the area of ‘mass customisation’. Consumers want to be individual and not limit themselves to mass produced items, says Wegner. “Consumers will, in theory, be able to have a much greater say in the final format of the product they are buying and have it manufactured to their precise specifications,” add the authors of the Ti report. This means for instance, that consumers could order shoes specifically tailored for their unique foot shape, or order iPad covers of their own design and colour specification. Nokia for instance, has released the 3D designs for its case so that owners can customise their own case and have it 3D printed.
“In the long run 3D printing will be an integral part in any production process, driven by consumer requirements and opportunities which come along such as more complexity which comes at no additional cost when printing as well as individualisation,” says DHL’s Wegner.
More basic manufacturing can even be done in the home, with entry-level machines available for as little as US$500 while industrial versions run into the millions. Analysts expect 3D printer sales to surge next year as prices are set drop due to the expiry of key patents in February 2014. These patents cover a technology known as ‘laser sintering,’ which produces high resolution in all three dimensions meaning no further finishing is required. And express delivery giant UPS has recently announced it will be placing mid-level 3D printers in select retail outlets across the US making the technology available to a wide spectrum of individuals.
The 3D printer used to create the plastic gun was bought for only US$8,000 on eBay and thousands of 3D ‘blueprints’ are available both commercially and for free on the Internet. The people behind the first 3D-printable gun have also launched a brand new search engine for 3D-print models which has been labelled the ‘Pirate Bay of 3D printing’. The site, defcad.com, although barely off the ground and with little press attention, has quickly grown its library to nearly 75,000 files.
But as Ti rightly points out, there is an enormous leap between a manufacturing process which can presently produce one-offs and one that can replace large scale manufacturing. But the report adds, “there is no reason why advances in technology could not increase the speed of production and reduce unit costs.”
If this did happen there would be many consequences, bringing about relatively minor (and then potentially major) changes to the global manufacturing industry, Ti continued citing the example of how 3D printing is already very good at producing products, even with moving parts, which previously would have required the assembly of multiple components. “By eliminating the assembly phase there will be huge savings for the manufacturer in terms of labour costs, but also potentially in the removal of storage, handling and distribution costs involved in bringing together the relevant components.”
The other key impact on manufacturing is due to the fact this technology automates production and eliminates the need for low cost labour meaning that manufacturing facilities could be sited closer to the customer in Europe or North America. And in the case of complex machinery located around the world – say health care equipment or a printing press – a 3D printer onsite would mean spare parts could be created on the spot.
“3D Printing, combined with efficient manufacturing, will revolutionise the principles established in the first Industrial Revolution,” said the Ti white paper authors. “Not only will local manufacturing re-establish itself close to end markets, but it will allow the flexibility to reconfigure in response to changing consumer demands. The nature of manufacturing will be very different from traditional models in which it takes established production plants months (or even years) to retool.”
Ti also highlighted that in 2012 it is estimated that up to 30 per cent of finished products already involve some kind of 3D printing. By 2016, this is expected to rise to 50 per cent and by 2020 potentially up to 80 per cent.
Impact on supply chains
Certainly the potential impact on supply chains is clear. The logic behind 3D printing’s transformation of the supply chain is that it allows production to be extremely local and completely just-in-time/demand driven. In such a scenario there would be no need to transport or hold any inventory – other than the raw materials that feed the 3D printers. Products can be produced on demand at a local location which supports the concept of near- and onshoring.
But for this technology to have a farreaching impact it must be able to mass produce goods in the same volumes as traditional manufacturing techniques, Ti notes. “At present the jury is still out on whether this is feasible.”
Taking an optimistic view on the developments, at least in the near term, is Oliver Evans, chief cargo officer Swiss WorldCargo, who notes the greater level of experimentation that 3D printing fosters. “In the past people would laboriously develop a prototype and then find that it didn’t work and develop another, now they can do it much more rapidly and much more effectively using 3D printing. The systemic manufacturing that follows, of a car or whatever, will probably continue to be done basically in the way it’s being done today.”
But he adds that importantly this faster and more effective prototyping, means there will be a lot more experimentation and development of new products and that bodes well for air freight. “There are people who imagine that manufacturing will be localised and yes some will be, but the potential for innovation with 3D printing I think means great news for the air cargo industry.”
“One of the implications that hasn’t been discussed widely is the implications for the tier one two and three suppliers,” said John Manners Bell, the white paper’s co-author and CEO of Ti. “The main trend over the last 30-40 years has been the unbundling and outsourcing of production. Now with the 3D technology – in which the main adopters have been the Chinese manufacturers who have been heavily investing in this technology – is to actually manufacture all components on one site so this will have major implications for intra-Asia flows of goods impacting on both air and sea freight because there wouldn’t be a need to move these goods across borders because they would be all internalised within one production facility.”
And potentially a proportion of goods which were previously produced in China or other Asia markets could be ‘nearsourced’ to North America and Europe which would drastically reduce shipping and air cargo volumes.
“The ‘mass customisation’ of products would mean that inventory levels fall, as goods are made to order. This would have the effect of reducing warehousing requirements. There would be fewer opportunities for logistics suppliers to be involved in companies’ upstream supply chains.”
Downstream logistics would also be impacted Ti said, with build-toorder production strategies could fundamentally impact the manufacturerwholesaler- retailer relationship. In the future the shopping experience could also be vastly different resulting in the case of some sectors, retailers either ceasing to exist, or become simply becoming ‘shop windows’ for manufacturers, keeping no stock of their own. In this case orders are fulfilled directly by the manufacturer and delivered to the home of the consumer.
Commenting on the issue Brandon Fried, the executive director of the US Airforwarders Association has said: “3D printing will not put an end to supply chains but will definitely redefine where goods come from, maybe negating the need for sourcing shipments from far away. Globalisation of manufactured products may fall out of favour, preferring those within the immediate region. This will certainly have a long-term impact on airfreight, as smaller, more profitable express consignments become a scarcity. If ignored, 3D printing could relegate air cargo to a support role, delivering the consumable resins and machinery used to feed the beast.”
First point of impact
If there is agreement on one thing amongst the experts and industry participants on both the technology and logistics sides, it is that the Service Parts Logistics sector is going to be the first to feel the impact. The Ti white paper states plainly that the sector, “will be either transformed or decimated by 3D manufacturing – or perhaps both!”.
Billions of dollars are now spent on holding stock to supply products as diverse as cars, aircraft, printing presses to X-ray and CT-scan equipment. This often includes a large amount of redundancy built into supply chains to enable parts to be dispatched in a very short time period to get machines up and running again as fast as possible.
“It doesn’t take much imagination to understand the benefits for a service parts engineer of being able to download a part design from an online library, 3D print it and then fit it within a very short time window,” said the white paper. This would make not only the global and national parts warehouses, forward stock locations unnecessary, but also the specialised express and courier companies that currently rush these parts to customers across the globe. As Fried noted: “Manufacturing has long chased ‘Just in Time’ parts, but may soon emphasise a shift to ‘Print as needed’.”
“No longer will there be a need to rapidly airfreight time sensitive parts to the opposite sides of the globe. Although with all this change, a new supply chain has been born, one that will replenish time sensitive consumables to drive the 3D printing nodes across the world,” said Dominic Rego, director of business development at Toll Global Logistics, who added that Toll has already plotted out its future by aggressively targeting the polymer based supply base that acts as the consumable in driving this printing phenomenon.
Noting the significant impact on how 3PLs operate in this field, Mei Yee Pang, head of inhouse consulting Asia Pacific, strategic logistics consulting at DHL, cited the example of one company in the optical industry which is already testing 3D printing for service parts in Africa, given challenges of importing goods into the continent. “What the implications are for logistics players, I think the jury is still out. If we think far out, we could be manufacturing parts for our customers, or we could be commoditised and ship the raw materials. But I think there are big changes ahead.”
Logistics in a 3D world
But for Wegner, while he feels 3D printing will evolve and market share will grow, “existing manufacturing technologies will not go away.” There will be a “significant impact” on logistics, he adds with more decentralised production, closer to where consumers and customers are, resulting in a potential “shift from intercontinental/ line haul to more local distribution. At the same time, supply chains will get more complex due to higher individualisation of products and shorter lifetime of products.”
For industrial parts, 3D printing in the foreseeable future will require specialised equipment and experienced staff, he adds, suggesting that 3D printing clusters might evolve, orchestrated by logistics service providers.
Indeed for the authors of the white paper, they see the changing supply chain dynamics leading to the evolution of a new type of logistics company resembling a ‘4PL’, as Product Life Cycle Management service providers. Essentially orchestrating the various assets involved in managing supply chains, Lyon says these companies won’t own many assets, but instead will essentially be custodians of the process.
Their businesses will comprise a mix of software development, delivery services, partner relationship management, contract and intellectual property management and brainpower. These companies will also design solutions comprising demand planning, manufacturing, market monitoring, service parts management and return and recycling services.
While it is still early days for this technology and most experts feel it is difficult to see manufacturing undergoing complete transformation for many years – perhaps decades – to come, some sectors like the manufacture of spare parts will be impacted much earlier. “In this case,” the Ti report notes, “the most enlightened logistics companies could even become early adopters of the technologies – investing in the 3D printers and providing facilities for engineers – rather than kicking against the progress.
“It is clear that if the larger logistics companies delay or ignore the implications of this trend, they are vulnerable to new kinds of organisations or associations that will match or leap ahead of their capabilities for very little outlay.”
