China will require 3,400 new airplanes worth about US$340 billion over the next 20 years, according to The Boeing Company’s updated annual forecast for the commercial airplane market. Over the forecast period, China will have the fastest-growing market, making it the largest market outside of the USfor new commercial airplanes.
China will continue leading all domestic air travel markets with a long-term passenger-kilometer growth rate of 8.8 per cent. Following the anticipated surge in passenger traffi c for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, the China domestic market will grow nearly fi ve-fold by 2026 to become slightly larger than today’sintra-North American market.
With the continued high rate of growth for China air travel and air cargo markets, China’s fl eet will nearly quadruple to 4,460 airplanes by the end of theforecast period – 2026.
Single-aisle airplanes such as the Boeing 737 will be the largest category with total new airplane deliveries reaching 2,200. Intermediate twin-aisles such as the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and 777 will see approximately 750 airplane deliveries. When combined, the single-aisle and intermediate twin-aisle market will make up 90 per cent of China’s total delivery dollars. About 330 regional jets and 90 airplanes of 747-and-larger size will bedelivered.
With China’s cargo markets leading the global industry, Chinese air carriers will add about 300 freighter airplanes by 2026. Its total fl eet of freighters willmore than quadruple in size.
“China domestic frequencies have increased more than sixteen-fold since 1990 while airplane sizes have remained about the same,” said Randy Tinseth, Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president, marketing.
“The Chinese domestic market’s projected average growth is almost 9 per cent. Boeing believes the current trend of more frequencies and nonstop fl ights will continue to accommodate this growth through a focus on single-aisle airplanes such as the Boeing 737.”
Air-travel growth between China and North America as well as between China and Europe will more than double in size during the next 20 years, and the number of city pairs will more than triple.
There will be an increased use of intermediate twin-aisle airplanes to and from all mainland China major cities, fueling frequency growth and new nonstop services using aircraft such as the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and 777.
