Boeing is forecasting a US$3.6 trillion market for new commercial airplanes over the next 20 years as world economies rebound and strong demand for new and replacement aircraft spurs growth. The Boeing 2010 Current Market Outlook (CMO), now in its 46th year was released in London late last month, foresees a market for 30,900 new commercial passenger and freighter aircraft by 2029.

“The world market is doing much better than last year, but there are still challenges,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “Looking at 2010, we see a world economy that continues to recover. We expect the world economy to grow above the long-term trend this year. As a result, both passenger and cargo travel will grow this year. Airline revenue and yields are up, but fuel prices remain volatile.”

Boeing projects the world freighter fleet to increase from 1,750 to 2,980 airplanes — an increase of more than two-thirds. This growth will require 2,490 freighters. Additions to the fleet will include 740 new-production freighters (worth $180 billion at today’s catalog prices) and 1,750 airplanes converted from passenger models. Large (more than 80 tonnes capacity) freighters will account for 520 new-build airplanes. Medium (40 to 80 tonnes) freighters will total 210 airplanes. Virtually all of the standard-body freighters (less than 45 tonnes) are expected to come from conversions of passenger airplanes.

The recession resulted in significantly reduced air cargo traffic in 2009, the base year for the Boeing forecast. From this low-traffic base, Boeing forecasts that world air cargo traffic will increase at an annual average of 5.9 per cent through 2029. Included is the current strong year traffic growth that Boeing estimates will reach nearly 14 per cent over full-year 2009 levels — a significant spike in the 20-year growth projection.