Stifle Logistics Confidence Index sinks to new low

by Payload Asia

With a score of 45.4, the December edition of the Stifle Logistics Confidence Index has recorded its lowest ever total, amidst a continued pattern of decline.

Of the four trade lanes covered by the Index, Europe to US continues to be the most positive, representing the highest-scoring route across both air and sea as well as current and expected situation, with continued strength of the US dollar against the Euro helping to boost performance. By contrast, the performance of trade lanes between Europe and Asia, in both directions, continues to be poor.

Within the air freight industry, increasing numbers of passenger planes, combined with what IATA has termed “a tough global economic environment and feeble world trade”, is resulting in increasingly poor load factors. Industry competitors have been somewhat protected by low fuel prices, but it is unclear how long this situation will persist. The underlying capacity problem, therefore, remains, said the Index’s authors, Transport Intelligence (Ti).

Stifel airfreightThe total air freight logistics confidence Index contracted by 2.3 points in December 2015, amounting to 46.6. The Index is 9.2 points lower than in December 2014, and 9.8 points lower than in December 2013.

Regarding the present situation, the air freight Index fell by 1.6 points to 43.8. Following a now well-established pattern, all lanes posted month on month declines with the exception of Europe to US, which gained 1.0 points to reach 57.4. By contrast, US to Europe stood at 42.6 after losing 3.5 points, whilst Asia to Europe and Europe to Asia lost 1.1 and 3.1 points respectively, totalling 41.3 and 34.8.

In the 6-month outlook, there were no exceptions to the pattern of decline that saw expectations fall 3.0 points to 49.3. Europe to Asia recorded the slightest change out of the four lanes, having fallen by 0.1 points to 47.4. Following this was US to Europe, which was down 1.5 points to 49.2. Whilst Europe to US stood out once more as a positive at 54.2 points, it also recorded a significant month on month decline of 4.6 points. Worse was Asia to Europe, which, at 46.9, had dropped below the 50 point mark by losing 5.5 points in December.