The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for global air freight markets showing that demand, measured in freight tonne kilometers (FTKs), decreased by 1.1% in November 2019, compared to the same period in 2018. This marks the thirteenth consecutive month of year-on-year declines in freight volumes.

Despite the decline in demand, November’s performance was the best in eight months, with the slowest year-on-year rate of contraction recorded since March 2019. In part, November’s outcome reflects the growing importance of large e-commerce events such as Singles Day and Black Friday.

While international e-commerce continues to grow, overall air cargo demand continued to face headwinds from the effects of the trade war between the US and China, the deterioration in world trade, and a broad-based slowing in global economic growth.

Freight capacity, measured in available freight tonne kilometers (AFTKs), rose by 2.9% year-on-year in November 2019. Capacity growth has now outstripped demand growth for the 19th consecutive month.

 

November 2019 (% year-on-year) World share1 FTK AFTK FLF (%-pt)2 FLF (level)3 Total Market 100.0% -1.1% 2.9% -2.0% 49.6% Africa 1.6% 19.8% 13.7% 2.1% 40.4% Asia Pacific 35.4% -3.7% 1.8% -3.1% 53.8% Europe 23.3% 2.6% 4.0% -0.8% 56.9% Latin America 2.7% -3.4% -2.3% -0.5% 40.3% Middle East 13.2% -3.0% 2.6% -2.9% 49.7% North America 23.8% -1.1% 3.3% -1.8% 41.3%

1 % of industry FTKs in 2018  2 Year-on-year change in load factor  3 Load factor level

 

 

Regional Performance

Airlines in Asia-Pacific, Latin America and the Middle East suffered sharp declines in year-on-year growth in total air freight volumes in November 2019, while North American carriers experienced a more moderate decline. Europe and Africa were the only regions to record growth in air freight demand compared to November last year.

Asia-Pacific airlines saw demand for air freight contract by 3.7% in November 2019, compared to the same period in 2018. This was the sharpest drop in freight demand of any region for the month.  Capacity increased by 1.8%. The US-China trade war has significantly affected the region, with demand on the large Asia – North America market down 6.5% year-on-year in October (latest available data). However, the thawing of US-China trade relations and robust economic growth in key regional economies are positive developments.

 

North American airlines saw demand decrease by 1.1% in November 2019, compared to the same period a year earlier. Capacity increased by 3.3%. Slower growth in the US economy and trade tensions with China have affected demand.  However, positive progress in trade negotiations between both countries highlighted by the ‘phase one’ deal is a positive development.

 

European airlines posted a 2.6% increase in freight demand in November 2019 compared to the same period a year earlier.  Better than expected economic activity in Q3 in some of the region’s large economies helped support demand. Capacity increased by 4.0% year-on-year.

Middle Eastern airlines’ freight volumes decreased 3.0% in November 2019 compared to the year-ago period – a significant improvement over the 5.7% decrease in October. Capacity increased by 2.6%. Against a backdrop of operational and geopolitical challenges facing some of the region’s key airlines, seasonally adjusted freight volumes in the region have continued a modest upwards trend which is a positive development for the region’s carriers. However, escalated geopolitical tensions threaten the regions’ carriers in the period ahead.

Latin American airlines experienced a decrease in freight demand in November 2019 of 3.4% compared to the same period last year.  Various social and economic headwinds in the region’s key economies have impacted the region’s air cargo performance. Capacity decreased by 2.3% year-on-year.

 

African carriers posted the fastest growth of any region in November 2019, with an increase in demand of 19.8% compared to the same period a year earlier. Strong trade and investment links with Asia contributed to the positive performance. Capacity grew 13.7% year-on-year.