Generally used as a curse, this famous quote has a resonance suggesting a kinship to air cargo. After all, we all earn a living from an industry which seems to be perpetually bound up in ‘interesting times’. While it could, particularly after last year be seen as a curse, is deserves a more positive spin. With the industry now firmly gaining altitude after the freefall of last year and no significant turbulence in sight, industry players are now shifting gears from cautious optimism to a full-fledged positive outlook.

And along with this breath of fresh air, there is another scent — and it smells like change. For sure the crisis of last year played a crucial role — forcing carriers to streamline and become more efficient in every aspect of their business. Few would disagree that this ‘spring-cleaning’ of sorts was ultimately good for carries and the industry alike.

But the crisis had an even more far reaching impact, one that is more theoretical or strategic in nature. In short, it put a sharp focus on the issue of belly versus maindeck utilisation. Take for instance the Air France-KLM group that, as the severity of the crisis became clear, made a decisive move to shift its freighters out of the realm of its passenger business, placing them in the care of the group’s all-cargo division, Martinair.Air France-KLM continued to sell it’s ample belly capacity saying it was sufficient to meet the demand at the time. More recent rumours have emerged suggesting the Air France-KLM duo may exit the cargo realm altogether. More likely, Martinair would simply assume full responsibility for the group’s cargo activities, including the belly capacity of Air France and KLM.

Another move earlier this year also seems to suggest a similar idea, with the proposed joint venture between Air China Cargo and Cathay Pacific, in which ultimately, the entire cargo divisions of the two carriers will become one. It’s not clear what will happen to the substantial belly capacity of Cathay, but the move does clearly indicate a corralling of cargo resources.

Are we seeing a new trend emerging, one which sees a shift away from the passenger side in order to provide a sharper focus on cargo? As DJ Ghosh, president of American Friendship Cargo has noted: “Like a grown up child that has lived for too long under the same roof as his parents, it is now evident that air cargo operators have stayed for too long under the umbrellas of their passenger counterparts.”

Ghosh continues: “Each new day, and each frayed cord from the passenger business will propel air cargo operators towards creating their own independent platform and in the process a whole new dedicated science on how this emerging business should be run.” He goes on to argue that this brings with it significant opportunities, but only through greater specialisation.

There are compelling examples — one need only look to Cargoitalia, Cargolux, AirBridgeCargo and several others to see successful examples. But what of the belly capacity? Perhaps the evolving Air France-KLM model might provide one roadmap. On the other hand, Emirates SkyCargo’s model of dedicated freighters that provide large lift and flexibility, combined with an extensive bellyhold network, works well for them.

It’s perhaps too early to weigh-in on whether this is a crystallising trend and if so could it have far reaching impact. Clearly the crisis last year did indeed have a far reaching impact on how carriers think about the cargo business and one other thingis for sure — nothing can be taken for granted in the air cargo business anymore.