Optimism is not so difficult an attitude these days – at least not when the cargo front is looking better all the time. In a recent television interview Lufthansa’s Chief Financial Officer Stephan Gemkow commented: “The cargo business is currently absolutely booming. For the first time in over 10 years we are seeing not just strong imports out of China, but also strong exports to China. And when he was asked about the immediate future, Gemkow said: “As far as a CFO can be optimistic, I am optimistic.”

This was clearly not the case a few months ago. Indeed it was a seemingly odd phenomenon to watch as air cargo tonnages dwindled almost every day with no end in sight, aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Airbus were busy buildingnew widebody freighters: The A330-200F, B747-8F and B777F. While Boeing’s B777Fmade its appearance in 2009, the firstA330-200F was handed over to EtihadCrystal Cargo in July. As for the B747-8F, Boeing has admitted there is a “veryhigh probability”, that first deliveries ofthe B747-8 freighter to launch customerCargolux, would slip into 2011.

But the good news is that with the improvement in the world economy, cargo capacity has changed the outlook for production of larger freighters.

Optimistic forecasts
The optimistic outlook is reflected in the freighter market with Airbus forecasting that the cargo aircraft fleet — both new and converted freighters — will increase globally from just over 1,700 aircraft in 2008 to 3,864 in 2028, with the dedicated freighter fleet growing 2.2 times from today’s level. Boeing projects that the world freighter fleet will shoot up from the present around 1,750 to 2,980 aircraft by 2029, a requirement therefore of 2,490 additional freighters.

Boeing’s Current Market Outlook 2010 forecasts the induction of 740 newbuild freighters (worth US$180 billion at today’s catalogue prices) around the world. Of these, 520 freighters would be in the large category (more than 80 tonnes capacity), while 210 aircraft would be in the medium (40 to 80 tonnes) category and 10 would be narrow-body freighters (less than 45 tonnes). Simply put, the freighter strength will rise from 1,750 in 2009 to 2,980 in 2029 and that would include in addition to the 740 new-production freighters and 1,750 freighters converted from passenger models.

Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes put the reason for this optimistic growth forecast rather matter-of-factly: “The inclusion of the high-traffic growth levels in 2010, following the recession, is driving our cargo forecast upward. However, the strength of the industry and its growth will continue to be driven by sound fundamentals – speed and reliability, consumer product innovation and global industrial interdependence.”

Competing manufacturer Airbus, has a slightly different take on the numbers. The projection of 3,864 freighters – both new and converted – in the Global Market Forecast 2009-2029, joining the world fleet in 2028 has taken into account the large planes. According to John Leahy, Airbus COO Customers, the Asia-Pacific region would top the airfreight market; hence the need for more widebodies. The European manufacturer has forecast that there would a fleet increase of more than 750 aircraft, primarily due to the high growth rates from China’s link with markets as far apart as Brazil and countries in Central America.

Whatever the projections, it is almost a certainty that medium to large freighters will be in demand and Airbus, for example, has been busy hyping the A330-200F at the recent Singapore airshow. Apparently, the long queue of professionals interested in having a look at the A330 freighter made Didier Lenormand, Airbus head of marketing for freighters ecstatic: “The number and quality of visitors exceeded our expectations, as the A330-200F really created a ‘buzz’ at the show. The visitors’ reaction confirmed our slogan that the A330-200F is ‘the right-sized freighter, right now’.” He was backed by the numbers on the order book – a majority of them are from the Asia-Pacific region – from BOC Aviation, MNG Airlines and Turkish Airlines and the yet-to-take-off, Flyington Freighters from India.

Competing priorities
Notwithstanding the forecasts, market demand and production schedules of the plane manufacturers often have a life of their own. Boeing, for example, pushed back the delivery of the B747-8 freighter from the end of 2009 to the third quarter of 2010. The company had also postponed the delivery of the B777 freighter from end-2008 to the first quarter of 2009.

Production delays of passenger planes have had their effect on freighters, as well. Analysts point out that the Dreamliner’s delay has pumped up the demand for Airbus A330-200. The result: The European manufacturer has concentrated on producing passenger versions and delayed the delivery of the first A330-200F from 2009 to 2010.

The IL-96T The other somewhat smaller player in the freighter market is the manufacturer of the widebody Russian workhorse, the Ilyushin IL-96.

The IL-96T is the freighter version of the IL-96M and IL-96-400 and is powered by four Aviadvigatel PS90 engines and can carry a maximum payload of 92 tonnes over 5,000km. Currently the only operator of the IL-96T is Russian carrier, Polet which operates three of the aircraft with another three on order. Lima, Peru-based Cielos Airlines also has three on order.