Once again another year has come to a close. While it’s tempting to gripe about another year best forgotten, it’s getting to be a well-worn, if not patently overused phrase. Undeniably it was another bad year for air cargo and sadly, a situation that the air cargo industry is quite simply starting to get used to. Although there surely isn’t an air cargo exec in the world that isn’t aware of the pit-falls of complacency!
But on a rosier note, there are some very real, very tangible signs that next year, could…just maybe, see the real beginnings of some – perhaps mild – form of recovery. With at least three consecutive months of rising cargo volumes in key global markets and no imminent signs of economic disaster in any significant economies around the world, things look at least ‘calm’.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) Airline Industry Forecast for the next five years also imbues some optimism into the situation, although the word ‘forecast’ has become a bit of dirty word over the last three years. According to IATA’s projection, the period 2013-2017 shows international freight volumes are expected to grow 17 per cent over the next five years. According to the airline group, this consensus outlook incorporates a “conservative estimate” of the recovery in global economic activity and world trade volumes over the coming years.
The skepticism that such forecasts now encounter is not unreasonable considering the environment over the last three or more years. But much of this has come about because of the fracture of the tried-and-true relationship between international trade and GDP, just as the link between the health of air cargo and the passenger business has become de-linked. Air cargo, because of this trade- GDP fracture, has lost its ‘canary in the coal mine’ street-cred. Interestingly, the reason for this fracture, according to IATA’s economists – who are certainly no slouches at their job – is a result of rising trade barriers and ‘on-shoring’ of production. And if I may add my two-cents worth; beware of 3D-printing – soon.
But again, there is hope as the successful conclusion of the World Trade Organisation talks in Bali hold out the potential for kick-starting world trade growth again. And certainly positive news out any WTO talks is so rare a phenomenon that its not to be sniffed at.
From the Payload Asia team, we wish you the very best on the eve of a New Year and may much happiness, health and prosperity find you in the days and months ahead!
