September turned out to be the best month of this year’s third quarter according to the latest statistics from WorldACD, with a worldwide volume growth of 1.9 per cent year-on-year (YoY) and a modest month-over-month (MoM) yield increase (in USD) of 0.4 per cent, the first such improvement since last February.
The origin Africa trade continued to lead with a volume growth of four per cent, similar to this month’s growth for the origins Europe and Asia Pacific. The Gulf Area recorded a volume decline of 21 per cent, heavily influenced by the shift in Eid al-Adha from October last year to September this year, according to the report.
In the month, non-general cargo grew by 7.8 per cent YoY worldwide. This increase was mainly caused by growth in the transport of dangerous goods (+12 per cent), perishables and pharmaceuticals (both +9.0 per cent). In pharmaceuticals, Europe strengthened its dominant position (+11 per cent), while in perishables, the traditional ‘powerhouses’ Africa and Latin America lost some ground. However, in overall USD-revenues for all product categories together, Africa and Latin America lost much less than the other areas, WorldACD said.
“Judging by the first three quarters of the year, 2015 will be known as a year of modest volume growth, coupled with the largest USD-yield decrease in many years,” WorldACD said. YoY volume increased by 4.2 per cent in Q1, by 2.8 per cent in Q2 and by a mere 1.2 per cent in Q3, making for a year-to-date (YtD) figure of +2.7 per cent. At country level, Australia, Bangladesh and Vietnam stand out with a YtD volume growth of more than 20 per cent. Vietnam managed that growth with yields dropping very little.
YtD revenues are an altogether different story, WorldACD noted, adding that when expressing worldwide revenues in USD or CNY, there is a considerable YoY decrease of 12 and 10 per cent respectively. In sharp contrast, the same revenues expressed in JPY or EUR show an increase of 4.0 and 8.0 per cent, respectively. “If nothing else, this difference reveals that it will not be easy to qualify the year 2015 as uniformly bad for air cargo. When it comes to individual companies’ results, factors other than worldwide averages come into play,” the research group said.
According to the so-called broad index of the US Fed, over the past 12 months the USD appreciated by about 15 per cent against a basket of currencies from countries with which the US trades and ths will have different effects on different players. Companies with a good balance between revenues and cost in specific currencies, will see their results influenced less by rates of exchange than companies not having such a fit. Thus, the 14 per cent decrease in USD-yields (YtD) will not necessarily mean (the same level of) bad news for all airlines, it said.
“The full dynamics of the worldwide air cargo business make it quite difficult to establish the market impact of individual trends, be they varying exchange rates, capacity changes, lower fuel prices, shifts to all-in pricing, matching and hedging, modal shifts, changes in demand or cost reductions.
“Much more research will have to be done to create a model describing how (the interplay of) these different trends may affect the various markets in which companies are active,” WorldACD said, adding it is committed to continue researching trends that may feed such a model.
