Stifel Logistics Confidence Index lowest in three years

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For the sixth successive month, the Stifel Logistics Confidence Index has declined again in November, falling to the lowest registered in three years. The monthly decline registered in air freight was more moderate than that witnessed in sea freight, however, with the former was down by 0.4 points to 48.9, while sea freight dropped 2.8 points, amounting to 46.1.

The continuation of negative macroeconomic trends at the global level, primarily a result of the lethargic Chinese economy, represent the principal cause of the declines. Chinese retail sales were up by 11 per cent year-on-year in October, but the country saw exports fall by 6.9 per cent over the same timeframe in value terms, while the import decline was even worse at 18.8 per cent, according to the Index.

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Stifel Logistics Confidence Index: Total

The six month outlook for both air and sea freight fell at the same rate as the present situation, declining 1.6 points from October to total 50.2. When compared to the figures measured in previous years though, it is significantly lower; the Logistics Expectations Index is down 12.4 points against November 2014, and 11.6 points against November 2013.

Sea freight fell by 2.7 points to 48.1 in November, while air freight fell by only 0.4 points to 52.3, remaining above the 50 point mark. The reason for this is the systemic overcapacity that has come to characterise container shipping, which is driving carriers to consider desperate measures in order to survive.

The Europe to US sea freight trade lane grew by 3.8 point month-on-month in November, which brought it to 55.8. The air freight Index also recorded growth on this lane, albeit at 0.1 points to 56.4.

Air Freight
The total air freight logistics confidence Index decreased 0.3 points from October to 48.9 in November 2015. Compared with November 2014, the Index is 8.1 points worse, while it is also 7.4 points lower than November 2013. In terms of the present situation, the air freight Index fell by 0.3 points to 45.4.

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Stifel Logistics Confidence Index: Air Freight

Only one lane noted a gain this month, Europe to US, which was up by 0.1 points to 56.4. US to Europe remained unchanged from October at 46.1, whilst Asia to Europe and Europe to Asia both fell, the first by 0.2 points to 42.4, and the second by 1.1 points to 37.9.

For the six month outlook, the expected situation Index for total air freight also decreased slightly, by 0.4 points to 52.3. Trade lane performance was split. US to Europe and Asia to Europe both saw gains, up 1.7 points to 50.7 and 1.0 points to 52.4, respectively. By contrast, Europe to Asia and Europe to US were both down, by 2.2 points to 47.5 and 2.1 points to 58.8, in turn.