The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for global air freight markets showing air cargo volumes (measured in Freight Tonne Kilometers) were down 1.2 per cent in November 2015, compared to November 2014. Total cargo volumes, however, expanded compared to October 2015 and were higher than the low point in August. IATA highlighted this may indicate that the decline in cargo demand may be bottoming out.

The negative year-on-year comparisons occurred across all regions with the exception of the Middle East which grew by 5.4 per cent. Of the major markets that together comprise more than 80 per cent of total trade, Europe was down 2.0 per cent, North America by 3.2 per cent, and Asia-Pacific by 1.5 per cent. The comparative weakness in these regions was driven largely because the performance in November 2014 was very strong. Latin American and African markets also fell, by 6.4 and 6.0 per cent respectively.

“The freight performance in November was a mixed bag. Although the headline growth rate fell again and the global economic outlook remains fragile, it appears that parts of Asia-Pacific are growing again and globally, export orders are looking better. In fact, the downward trend in FTK volumes appears to be bottoming out. But there is a great deal of uncertainty. The current volatility of stock markets shows how much the health of the global economy – upon which air cargo depends – remains on a knife-edge,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s director general and CEO.

Asia Pacific
Asia-Pacific carriers saw a slight fall in FTKs of 1.5 per cent in November compared to November 2014, and capacity expanded 3.2 per cent. Compared to October, volumes expanded by a strong 1.9 per cent and over recent months, the declining trend in volumes has halted. Better demand in advanced economies is driving export growth in some countries, particularly in Japan.

Europe
European carriers reported weaker demand in November, down 2.0 per cent compared to a year ago, and capacity rose 2.2 per cent. Comparing November to October, the trend was flat, but there are indications that stronger manufacturing and export orders could support air freight demand in the coming months.

North America
North American airlines experienced a fall of 3.2 per cent year-on-year and capacity grew 5.8 per cent. The market remains hard to read. A 0.4 per cent expansion compared to October indicates that air cargo could be recovering, but export indicators are poor, making it hard to be optimistic for the coming months.

Middle East
Middle Eastern carriers saw demand expand by 5.4 per cent and capacity rise 9.2 per cent. Although the Middle East led the way as the only market showing positive growth, the rate fell to less than half the 11.9 per cent average growth for the year-to-date. Drops in the oil price are impacting some economies in the region.

Latin America
Latin American airlines reported a decline in demand of 6.4 per cent year-on-year, and capacity expanded 1.9 per cent. Few positive signals emerged from the markets in this region, with economic and political conditions in Brazil particularly weak. The comparison with October also showed a 1.4 per cent contraction and air cargo demand appears to be mirroring weaker consumer confidence.

Africa
African carriers experienced a fall in demand of 6.0 per cent and capacity rose by 6.6 per cent. Africa remains one of only three regions (with Asia-Pacific and Middle East) to record positive year-to-date growth for 2015. Demand is holding up despite the underperformance of Nigeria and South Africa.