ACI World projects 22.3 billion passengers by 2053

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Airports Council International (ACI) World unveiled its anticipated Airport Traffic Forecasts 2024–2053, projecting significant long-term growth in global passenger traffic. Over the next three decades, global passenger numbers are expected to reach 17.7 billion by 2043 and 22.3 billion by 2053, the later nearly 2.4 times the projected volume for 2024.

The new forecasts, which cover 99.8% of global markets across 161 countries, highlight a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4% from 2024 to 2043, with a slightly slower CAGR of 3% from 2024 to 2053. The projections indicate a steady upward trajectory in global aviation, driven by factors such as rising middle-class travel demand in emerging markets, strengthened international travel, and continued investments in airport infrastructure.

However, short-term challenges include geopolitical tensions, economic instability, trade shifts like reintroduced tariffs, and supply chain bottlenecks, which may slow recovery in some regions.

ACI World Director General Justin Erbacci commented: “Despite the challenges in the near term, global air travel is poised for steady, sustained growth. It is crucial for airports, airlines, and policymakers to take bold, forward-thinking action to anticipate and meet the demands of the future. ACI World remains unwavering in its commitment to support its airport members, helping them navigate evolving dynamics and seize opportunities ahead.”

Key long-term highlights:

  • Global passenger traffic growth: Between 2024 and 2043, global passenger traffic is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.4%, reaching 17.7 billion passengers. By 2053, global passenger traffic is expected to nearly double, reaching 22.3 billion, reflecting a CAGR of 3% from 2024 to 2053.
  • Domestic vs. international global traffic growth: International passenger traffic is expected to grow at a faster rate than domestic traffic over the next three decades. From 2024 to 2053, international traffic is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 3.3%, while domestic traffic will expand at a slightly slower pace of 2.8%.
  • Growth in emerging markets: The forecast highlights continued strong growth in emerging markets, driven by a rising middle class and increasing demand for air travel. Investments in airport infrastructure in these regions will play a key role in supporting this expansion.
  • Air cargo growth: Global air cargo is projected to grow steadily, with a CAGR of 2.7% from 2024 to 2043 and 2.4% from 2024 to 2053. However, ACI World cautions that evolving trade policies and supply chain disruptions could introduce volatility in the sector.
  • Aircraft movements: The number of aircraft movements is expected to increase significantly, reaching 149 million by 2043 and 176 million by 2053. Airports worldwide will need to prepare for this growth by enhancing operational efficiency and investing in infrastructure.

To help airport planners and investors navigate this evolving landscape, the ACI World Airport Traffic Forecasts 2024–2053 includes granular forecasts for: total passengers (international & domestic), air cargo volumes, and total aircraft movements. The latest report also introduces a new forecasting methodology based on advanced machine learning techniques, ensuring greater accuracy and relevance for long-term data-driven decision-making.