The DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI) has released its Q1 2026 results, providing an updated outlook on air trade sentiment and underlying market trends.
Key highlights of Q1 2026 include:
- The Overall Air Trade Index remained stable in Q1 2026, signalling trade resilience and alignment with the indices’ recent performance. This stability underscores air traders’ continued confidence despite external uncertainties.
- Sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Two-thirds of air traders expect shipment volumes to remain stable or increase, reflecting sustained business activity.
- During the traditional peak season in Q4 2025, more than half of air traders reported performance in line with expectations. However, only 3% exceeded forecasts, highlighting the complexities of the current operating environment.
- Soft global economic conditions and subdued consumer demand remain top challenges for 2026, compounded by China–US trade tensions and persistently high logistics costs.
- The Chinese Mainland is recognised as the leading market for growth, with Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore identified as attractive secondary markets for expansion.
- More than 70% of air traders plan to maintain 2026 pricing at 2025 levels, while nearly 20% anticipate price increases—half of them in the 3–6% range.
- With Chinese New Year approaching, seasonal demand is expected to rise—particularly for Apparel & Clothing Accessories, Gifts, Toys, and Houseware products. Europe’s index posted the strongest performance in Q1 2026, maintaining its lead over other regions, while Asia Pacific faced challenges.
The DTI analyses the key attributes of business demands based on a survey of more than 600 Hong Kong companies that focus on in- or outbound air trading. An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook, while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter. The further the reading is from 50, the more positive or negative the outlook is.
Read the full report here.
