Xeneta, the ocean and air freight rate intelligence solution, has published the Air Freight Outlook 2026 Mid-Year Update, adjusting the full-year 2026 forecast issued in December 2025 to factor in the ongoing impact of conflict in the Middle East on rates, demand and supply.
Shipper long-term rates were set to fall 5% to 10% in full-year 2026; however, those rates are now expected to rise 5% to 15%, driven primarily by the supply chain shock caused by the escalation of conflict in the Middle East in February.
Xeneta also now forecasts full-year demand growth toward the higher end of the 2% to 3% range published in December 2025, while capacity growth is expected toward the lower end of a revised 2% to 3% range – down from the 3% to 4% published in December.
Escalation of the Middle East conflict on 28 February removed 12% of global air cargo capacity overnight. This contributed to global air cargo supply growth of just 1% in the first half of 2026.
Demand grew 4% over the same period, ahead of the original 2% to 3% forecast for the full year 2026.
The supply-demand imbalance pushed rates higher across the board. Global air cargo rates, combining spot and long-term contracts, rose 17% year-on-year in the first half of 2026.
Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer, said: “On 27 February I would have bet on the Netherlands winning the World Cup before I put money on air rates jumping 40%. Yet that is what happened, with global spot rates up around 40% year-on-year in May. Spot rates are now plateauing, but they are not falling.
“Demand keeps defying gravity. Despite everything thrown at it, the market has still moved more volume than last year – the engine just keeps running and it is quite remarkable.
“Shippers should expect demand growth to ease through H2, while supply continues its recovery from the Middle East disruption. As the two converge, the market fundamentals look set to tilt back in the shipper’s favor – but we have been here before, so take nothing for granted.”
Van de Wouw believes 2026 is another example of air freight proving its worth to the resilience of global supply chains.
He said: “Missile attacks closed major air hubs across the Middle East overnight in what is the most significant, sudden shock to air freight capacity in living memory. The Covid-19 pandemic may have been a bigger shock, but unlike this crisis, it built up over time.
“While ocean services are only just starting to trickle through the Strait of Hormuz, air freight charters were back operational within days. Air freight cannot control its own destiny, but it responds fast and can achieve the speed and resilience in a way other modes simply cannot.”
AI-driven demand accelerates as e-commerce growth stalls
Two further trends are pulling air cargo demand in opposite directions. AI-related demand is booming, driven by semiconductor and hardware shipments. Global semiconductor sales more than doubled year-on-year in April 2026, up 106%, the strongest growth since records began in 1986. AI-related goods still account for less than 10% of total air cargo volume, but they are concentrated on the Transpacific, now the year’s strongest corridor.
E-commerce demand, in contrast, has stalled. China’s low-value and e-commerce exports fell 7% year-on-year in May 2026, a sixth consecutive monthly decline. The European Union removed its €150 duty-free threshold for low-value imports on 1 July 2026, replacing it with a flat €3 duty per item and a further €2 handling fee expected in November, tightening the low-value parcel trade that fueled e-commerce air cargo growth in recent years.
“While e-commerce demand is cooling, AI-driven freight is booming, particularly on the Transpacific.
“I cannot see the e-commerce growth engine being revived. There will always be a consumer demand for cheap goods manufactured in Asia, but the extraordinary demand growth of recent years will not be sustained. E-commerce was air freight’s single biggest growth pillar, but that is no longer the case,” van de Wouw said.
Van de Wouw explains the geopolitical climate should act as a warning for potential further shocks in the second half of 2026.
“On 27 February nobody would have envisioned what came the next day. Dubai Airport under missile attack was unimaginable, but it happened. If Dubai can be closed by rockets, what else is possible? There will be another wildcard and, just like the Middle East conflict, it will come at a cost for shippers. Those with live data and intelligence will navigate the next shock most effectively,” van de Wouw said.
The full Xeneta Air Freight Outlook 2026 Mid-Year Update is available at xeneta.com. The analysis draws on Xeneta Air Freight Intelligence, which gives procurement and supply chain teams an independent view of the air freight market in one place, covering shipper contract rates, airline selling rates and dynamic load factors. Xeneta has now expanded the platform with rate and volume intelligence broken out by special cargo type, including pharma, perishables, live animals, valuables and dangerous goods, allowing shippers to benchmark against the market they are actually operating in.
