Global air cargo volumes grew +4% year-on-year in April but with today’s removal of the de minimis threshold for shipments from China into the United States expected to dramatically disrupt e-commerce volumes in the coming weeks and massive uncertainty hanging over the macroeconomic outlook, the question for the air cargo market in 2025 has become ‘how bad will it be?’, according to industry analysts Xeneta. Over the past 10 years, US consumers have paid no duty on shipments valued at $800 or … [Read more...] about Xeneta: Air cargo market awaits impact of tariffs and de minimis changes

E-commerce volumes, for so long the saviour of global air cargo demand, are today facing up to the ‘seismic shock’ of the United States’ ‘Liberation Day’ global tariffs announcement, while the general cargo market is also reevaluating its future as shippers, forwarders, airlines, and consumers come to terms with the economic reality of new import taxes and a potential international trade war. US President Donald Trump, yesterday confirmed the elimination of duty–free de minimis treatment for … [Read more...] about Xeneta: ‘A seismic shock’ for e-commerce volumes as global air cargo market faces the economic reality of upcoming tariffs

The political game of ‘cat and mouse’ between some of the world’s biggest trading nations may have taken its first nibble at international e-commerce volumes in February’s global air cargo market data with spot rates from Shanghai to the US dropping -29% month-on-month to USD3.23 per kg, according to the latest industry analysis by Xeneta. Even allowing for the earlier Lunar New Year and the seasonal e-commerce slowdown at the start of the year, the fall in Shanghai-US spot rates, following the … [Read more...] about Xeneta: Slump in Shanghai spot rates may be a ‘taste of what’s to come’ for air cargo’s e-commerce volumes

2025 began with lower-than-expected growth in global air cargo demand in January of just +2% year-on-year compared to the double-digit monthly increases throughout last year but fears of a trade war over tariffs impacting volumes and growth forecasts for the year are premature, say industry analysts Xeneta. January’s data was impacted by the earlier Lunar New Year reducing volumes out of China, but the big drop in demand was still as a surprise, says Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, Niall van … [Read more...] about Xeneta: A slower than expected start to 2025 as air cargo faces a ‘waiting game’ amidst fears of tariff trade war

The global air cargo market cruised into 2025 on the back of 14 consecutive months of double-digit growth in demand as volumes climbed +11% year-on-year in December and average spot rates finished the year +15% higher, according to industry analysts Xeneta. While Xeneta is forecasting more demand growth of +4-6% in 2025, Chief Airfreight Officer, Niall van de Wouw, says the air cargo industry’s “cautious optimism remains tempered by its susceptibility to geopolitical tensions, a subdued … [Read more...] about Xeneta: A flying start to 2025 but after 14 months of double-digit demand growth, air cargo stakeholders remain cautious

Global air cargo demand showed no signs of slowing down in November as volumes recorded a 13th consecutive month of double-digit growth and load factors hit their highest level since April 2022, according to the latest market analysis by Xeneta. Demand rose +10% year-on-year in November, fuelled by the continued boom in e-commerce. This, coupled with only a marginal +2% growth in air cargo capacity, contributed to global air cargo spot rates (valid for one month) also reaching their highest … [Read more...] about Xeneta: 2024 a ‘peak season to be proud of’ as air cargo industry continues to manage strong demand growth